Saturday, November 11, 2006
Israel to produce synthetic oil from low quality shale at $17 a barrel

Analysis: Israel sees shale replacing oil
By LEAH KRAUSS UPI Energy Correspondent
www.upi.com/Energy/view.php?StoryID=20061107-070924-5161r
HAIFA, Israel, Nov. 7 (UPI) -- The Israeli process for producing energy from
oil shale will cut its oil imports by one-third, and will serve as a guide
for other countries with oil shale deposits, according to one company.

A.F.S.K. Hom Tov presented its oil shale processing method on Tuesday,
outside Haifa and just down the street from one of the country's two oil
refinery facilities.

"Because the patents for this process belong to (the company), Israel is the
most advanced in the world in the effort to create energy from oil shale,"
Moshe Shahal, a Hom Tov legal representative and a former Israeli energy
minister, told United Press International.

Shahal estimated that the company's Negev Desert facility would begin
full-scale production in three to four years, while other countries with oil
shale deposits will need five to six years to reach production.

Oil shale is limestone rock that contains hydrocarbons, or fossil fuels --
about 20 percent of the amount of energy found in coal. Using the rock as a
raw material and coating it with bitumen, a residue of the crude oil
refining process, the company can produce natural gas, fuel, electricity, or
a combination of the three.

Older technologies squeezed the hydrocarbon material out of the rock, with
extremely high pressure and at high temperatures.
According to Professor Ze'ev Aizenshtat, an oil shale expert, the Hom Tov
process is more environmentally friendly than other /methods of converting
oil shale into energy. It also allows for more flexibility in the kind of
fuel produced, produces less waste and operates at lower temperatures than
other methods.

Though the production process may be more environmentally friendly, the end
product is still a fossil fuel, similar in quality to a high-grade diesel
when in liquid form.

Israel's shale is low-quality, however -- its "caloric value" is only about
15 percent, while shale in other countries yields 20 percent, according to a
report in BusinessWeek earlier this year. As a result, more Israeli shale is
needed to produce the same amount of fuel.

Hom Tov isn't worried, however. "This is a much lighter (substance) than
what gradually comes out of an oil field," Aizenshtat told UPI, as Hom Tov
company owners Israel Feldman and Shimon Kazansky posed for photographs with
their fingers dipped in a plastic pitcher of the stuff.

Because fewer refining processes are necessary with oil shale than with
crude oil, the final product is a higher quality fuel at a lower price,
Aizenshtat said.

The company estimates it will consume 6 million tons of oil shale and 2
million tons of refinery waste each year, for an annual production of 3
million tons of product.

It would cost about $17 to produce a barrel of synthetic oil at the Hom Tov
facility, meaning giant profit margins in a world of $45 to $60 per barrel
crude. Yearly earnings are forecasted to be between $159 million and $350
million, Shahal said.

Israel has 15 billion tons of oil shale reserves. Jordan, on the other hand,
has about 25 billion tons, and the oil shale in Jordan is of higher quality.
Shahal met with Jordanian Energy Minister Azmi Khreisat earlier this year,
to discuss setting up a plant there.

The United States also has a giant reserve, mostly in Colorado, and Hom Tov
sees potential for its patented process there.

The process, which Feldman and Kazansky developed in the mid-1990s, has
lately attracted some high-powered investors, including Ofer Glazer -- the
third husband of Israel's richest resident, billionaire Carnival Cruise
heiress Shari Arison.

"It's a kind of dream" to invest in Hom Tov, Glazer told UPI. "It's the type
of investment where Israel needs the product, and it creates jobs."

Glazer added that it will be good for Israel not to be dependent on
"external sources" for its energy needs, saying that "those countries aren't
exactly friendly (to Israel.)"

As for his stake in the project, Glazer said he preferred "not to get into
numbers."

www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=31531

Nov. 6, 2006

SUBJECT: Iraq — Illustrative New Courses of Action

The situation in Iraq has been evolving, and U.S. forces have adjusted, over time, from major combat operations to counterterrorism, to counterinsurgency, to dealing with death squads and sectarian violence. In my view it is time for a major adjustment. Clearly, what U.S. forces are currently doing in Iraq is not working well enough or fast enough. Following is a range of options:


ILLUSTRATIVE OPTIONS

Above the Line: (Many of these options could and, in a number of cases, should be done in combination with others)

Publicly announce a set of benchmarks agreed to by the Iraqi Government and the U.S. — political, economic and security goals — to chart a path ahead for the Iraqi government and Iraqi people (to get them moving) and for the U.S. public (to reassure them that progress can and is being made).

Significantly increase U.S. trainers and embeds, and transfer more U.S. equipment to Iraqi Security forces (ISF), to further accelerate their capabilities by refocusing the assignment of some significant portion of the U.S. troops currently in Iraq.

Initiate a reverse embeds program, like the Korean Katusas, by putting one or more Iraqi soldiers with every U.S. and possibly Coalition squad, to improve our units’ language capabilities and cultural awareness and to give the Iraqis experience and training with professional U.S. troops.

Aggressively beef up the Iraqi MOD and MOI, and other Iraqi ministries critical to the success of the ISF — the Iraqi Ministries of Finance, Planning, Health, Criminal Justice, Prisons, etc. — by reaching out to U.S. military retirees and Reserve/National Guard volunteers (i.e., give up on trying to get other USG Departments to do it.)

Conduct an accelerated draw-down of U.S. bases. We have already reduced from 110 to 55 bases. Plan to get down to 10 to 15 bases by April 2007, and to 5 bases by July 2007.

Retain high-end SOF capability and necessary support structure to target Al Qaeda, death squads, and Iranians in Iraq, while drawing down all other Coalition forces, except those necessary to provide certain key enablers for the ISF.

Initiate an approach where U.S. forces provide security only for those provinces or cities that openly request U.S. help and that actively cooperate, with the stipulation being that unless they cooperate fully, U.S. forces would leave their province.

Stop rewarding bad behavior, as was done in Fallujah when they pushed in reconstruction funds, and start rewarding good behavior. Put our reconstruction efforts in those parts of Iraq that are behaving, and invest and create havens of opportunity to reward them for their good behavior. As the old saying goes, “If you want more of something, reward it; if you want less of something, penalize it.” No more reconstruction assistance in areas where there is violence.

Position substantial U.S. forces near the Iranian and Syrian borders to reduce infiltration and, importantly, reduce Iranian influence on the Iraqi Government.

Withdraw U.S. forces from vulnerable positions — cities, patrolling, etc. — and move U.S. forces to a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) status, operating from within Iraq and Kuwait, to be available when Iraqi security forces need assistance.

Begin modest withdrawals of U.S. and Coalition forces (start “taking our hand off the bicycle seat”), so Iraqis know they have to pull up their socks, step up and take responsibility for their country.

Provide money to key political and religious leaders (as Saddam Hussein did), to get them to help us get through this difficult period.

Initiate a massive program for unemployed youth. It would have to be run by U.S. forces, since no other organization could do it.

Announce that whatever new approach the U.S. decides on, the U.S. is doing so on a trial basis. This will give us the ability to readjust and move to another course, if necessary, and therefore not “lose.”

Recast the U.S. military mission and the U.S. goals (how we talk about them) — go minimalist.

Below the Line (less attractive options):

Continue on the current path.

Move a large fraction of all U.S. Forces into Baghdad to attempt to control it.

Increase Brigade Combat Teams and U.S. forces in Iraq substantially.

Set a firm withdrawal date to leave. Declare that with Saddam gone and Iraq a sovereign nation, the Iraqi people can govern themselves. Tell Iran and Syria to stay out.

Assist in accelerating an aggressive federalism plan, moving towards three separate states — Sunni, Shia, and Kurd.

Try a Dayton-like process.

Assist in accelerating an aggressive federalism plan, moving towards three separate states — Sunni, Shia, and Kurd.

Thousands flee as war escalates in Somalia
POSTED: 9:54 a.m. EST, December 22, 2006

MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) -- Ethiopian attack helicopters and tanks headed for battle Friday as fighting raged for a fourth day between Somalia's Islamic militia and the country's secular government, witnesses and a government official said.

Tens of thousands of Somalis fled their homes as the Ethiopian-backed government used artillery to push back Islamic fighters who had advanced on the regime's only stronghold, Baidoa. Islamic forces who have declared they want to bring the whole country under Quranic rule said the latest fighting had been started by the government but now they would launch their own attacks.

Sheik Ibrahim Shukri Abuu-Zeynab, a spokesman for the Islamic movement, told reporters in the capital, Mogadishu, that the fighting so far was just a taste of what was to come.

"We will now start our real attack against the invaders and would not stop until we force the Ethiopians out of our country," he said. (Watch as Islamists swear to kick out Ethiopian "invaders")

Residents in Baidoa reported seeing hundreds of government troops and trucks being moved toward the front lines early Friday, following a night of heavy artillery and mortar fire.

Four attack helicopters were seen by residents headed toward the eastern front, outside the garrison town. A government official confirmed the deployment on condition of anonymity because it related to security issues.

Somalia could be battleground for Eritrea vs. Ethiopia
The increasingly violent clashes and deployment of attack helicopters could mean a major conflict in this volatile region. Ethiopia, which has one of the largest armies in the region, and its bitter rival, Eritrea, could use Somalia as the ground for a proxy war. While Ethiopia backs the government, Eritrea backs the Islamic movement.

One government parliamentarian in Baidoa said he feared it will fall to the Islamic group. "More well-armed Ethiopians are pouring in here minute after minute and thousands of Islamic fighters are heading here to force them and the government out," he said on condition of anonymity because he feared reprisals.

Families abandon livestock, homes; bodies in streets
Bodies lay in the streets of villages where attacks had taken place Thursday night, and families began to abandon their homes, crops and livestock, fearing worsening fighting. Hundreds of people in areas held by the Islamic forces also were fleeing south to Mogadishu.

"I think we have lost hundreds of our animals in the fighting, most of them were caught in the crossfire," said Malable Aden, who reached Mogadishu by car. "We were supposed to reap our harvest of this season, but unfortunately we were forced to leave them behind for the pigs and birds to destroy them."

The leader of the Council of Islamic Courts said Thursday that Somalia was in "a state of war" and called on all Somalis to fight Ethiopian forces in the country. Ethiopia denies its forces are fighting, but says it has deployed several hundred military trainers in support of Somalia's U.N.-backed transitional government.

"They (the Islamic group) are claiming that Ethiopia is fighting against them and this is totally false," said government spokesman Zemedkun Teckle. "If the time comes that we have to fight, it will be very clear to everyone and there will be no doubt because we will announce this to our people."

No effective government in Somalia for 15 years
The United Nations has appealed for calm, saying fighting would prevent aid from reaching hundreds of thousands in dire need of help because of hunger and flooding.

Somalia has not had an effective government since 1991. The country's secular interim government, set up in 2004 and backed by the U.N., has rejected religious rule. Muslim leaders have insisted on an Islamic government.

Somalia's internationally recognized central government holds only a small area around the central town of Baidoa, about 140 miles northwest of the capital of Mogadishu. The Islamic militiamen, meanwhile, control Mogadishu along with most of southern Somalia.

www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/africa/12/22/somalia.ap/index.html

WASHINGTON - The State Department signaled support Tuesday for Ethiopian military operations against Somalia, noting that Ethiopia has had "genuine security concerns" stemming from the rise of Islamist forces in its eastern neighbor.