Riddle of Russia reported arms sale to Syria/Iran

Moscow continues to deny repeated reports that it is wrapping up a major arms deal with Syria and Iran despite mounting evidence to the contrary. Reuben F Johnson investigates

Persistent reports from sources in Moscow, New Delhi and foreign delegations attending last month's Paris Air Show point towards Russia's state arms export agency, Rosoboronexport, preparing to make a major sale of conventional arms to Syria and Iran

During the Paris show, the Moscow-based newspaper Kommersant reported on a Rosoboronexport contract to deliver five Mikoyan MiG-31E fighter aircraft and an undetermined number of MiG-29M/M2 fighters to Syria in a deal worth more than USD1 billion.

The MiG-29M/M2 aircraft will be new production models, but the MiG-31E fighters will be used Russian Air Force aircraft that have been upgraded at the Sokol plant in Nizhni-Novgorod, where they were originally manufactured.

The MiG-31 contract is reported to be worth USD400 million of the USD1 billion deal, indicating that these five aircraft are probably only the first batch of a larger number to be delivered.

Kommersant also reported that Syria does not have the financial resources to support such an order and that the contract is being financed by Iran. Under the mutual defense agreement between the two nations, the aircraft might be transferred to Iran once Damascus has taken delivery.

However, Russia recently wrote off USD10 billion in debt that Syria had accumulated during the Soviet years, mostly from weapon systems delivered to Damascus on credit. The canceling of this debt now gives Syria a clean ledger to start purchasing weapons anew.

Israeli analysts also point out that the weapons may be a secondary consideration. At about the same time as the MiG contract was reportedly signed, Syria and Russia penned another agreement giving Moscow access to the Syrian port of Tartus.

This port access satisfies Russia's longstanding ambition for a naval base in the Mediterranean and it explains both the debt forgiveness and the shiny new weapons being delivered to the As sad regime.

It is not without precedent for Moscow to write off debt left over from the Soviet era in order to put together a set of interlocking arms sales and strategic trade and defense assistance agreements.

A similar set of deals was reached with Algeria that forgave that nation's debt in exchange for a multibillion-dollar weapons sale, access for Russian oil companies to Algerian oil fields and an agreement on transfer of Algerian gas liquefaction technology to Moscow's Gazprom.

At Paris, however, Rosoboronexport General Director Sergei Chemezov denied the existence of the contract. He stated: "Russia has no plans to supply fighters to Syria and Iran. If talks start with these countries, it will be announced."

Skeptics point out that Chemezov's denial is hard to take at face value for several reasons.

None other than Russian Federal Industry Agency Chairman Boris Alyoshin, whose government ministry controls the entire Russian defense industry, confirmed that there is a contract to supply these upgraded MiG-3 l Es to a foreign customer, but declined to name the buyer.

Another member of the Russian delegation at Paris also verified the existence of the MiG-3 1 contract, stating that the aircraft are for an unnamed "Middle Eastern nation".

Adding to the speculation are statements from sources in New Delhi that quote Rosoboronexport representatives as preparing to sell "as many as 250 Sukhoi Su-3OMKs to Iran".

Because there is the possibility of such a large sale in the offing, said one Indian defence analyst, Rosoboronexport is not particularly bothered about the problems it currently has in fulfilling some of its contracts to India - most notably delays in delivering the refitted Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier.

"They seem prepared to let India - at least temporarily - become disenchanted with its Russian supplier in order to focus on the potential for a new client base in Iran," continued the analyst.

Where the mystery begins is why Moscow dispatched Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Israel the week after the Paris Air Show to make the Russian position on sales to Syria clear.

"Whatever we do in the area of arms supplies is absolutely in line with our international obligations," he told the Israeli government on 28 June.

"It's also absolutely in line with the national legislation of the Russian Federation," Lavrov said. "Whatever we supply to Syria is transparent and is not offensive. In any case, it is not destabilizing the balance [of power] in the region."

The question, however, is this: if Chemezov's denials are true and there are no sales to Syria in process, then why did Moscow feel compelled to send Lavrov all the way to Jerusalem to defend the right to make a sale that is not supposed to even exist?

The answer is that it has been made very clear - at least inside Russia - that arms sales to Syria and Iran are a subject that is off limits for discussion.

In early March, Kommersant reporter Ivan Safranov, a retired Russian military colonel and a defense exports correspondent with the newspaper for 10 years, fell to his death from the fifth floor of his apartment building - two floors above from where his own apartment is actually located. Numerous circumstances surrounding this event point to someone or some organization trying to permanently silence him.

Safranov had been pursuing a story that detailed plans for Rosoboronexport to sell Su-3OMKs, Iskander-E intermediate-range ballistic missiles and Almaz-Antei S-300 air-defense systems to Iran - using both Syria and Belarus as pass-through nations in order to give Moscow deniability of its involvement.

Reuben F Johnson is a JDW correspondent, writing from Kiev.


www.janes.com

Philippine troops recover beheaded marines

MANILA, Philippines (AP) -- Philippine troops recovered the bodies of 14 marines, some of them beheaded, after clashing with Muslim insurgents while searching for a kidnapped Italian priest, a marine spokesman said Wednesday.

Nine others were wounded in some of the bloodiest fighting this year. The clash erupted Tuesday in Tipo Tipo town on southern Basilan island, said Lt. Col. Ariel Caculitan.

At least 10 bodies were beheaded, Caculitan said, including those of six marines earlier reported missing.

About 50 troops went to Basilan island to check on reports of sightings of the Rev. Giancarlo Bossi, a 57-year-old missionary from Milan who was kidnapped by gunmen on June 10.

The marines were heading back to camp when they were attacked by about 300 suspected Abu Sayyaf guerrillas, Caculitan said.

But Mohagher Iqbal, chief negotiator for the Muslim separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which is engaged in peace talks with the government, said his forces fought back after marines attacked a MILF stronghold.

He denied his forces were responsible for the beheadings, saying he would investigate. Four MILF members were killed in the fighting while seven others were wounded, he added.

Iqbal accused government troops of violating a 2003 cease-fire, saying they failed to coordinate their movements into the area with the rebels. He ruled out that Abu Sayyaf militants had sought refuge in the MILF stronghold, but did not explain who might have been responsible for the beheadings.

The gruesome decapitations are a trademark of the Abu Sayyaf, which has beheaded hostages in the past, including an American.

"It cannot be a mistaken encounter because it was a deliberate act on the part of the marines that entered the area, knowing that the area is a bailiwick of the MILF, in complete violation of the cease-fire," Iqbal said.

Still, he said, the clash was only a "tactical problem" and would not hamper peace talks with the government.

Philippine officials have issued conflicting statements on the identity of the groups that might have kidnapped Bossi.

Authorities initially blamed a MILF commander. The group denied any role and deployed forces in the initial weeks after the abduction to help government troops search for Bossi.

National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales has said Abu Sayyaf militants may have been responsible. But army officers say Abu Sayyaf gunmen do not have a presence in the area where Bossi was kidnapped.

Caculitan said he couldn't confirm reports that Bossi was taken to Basilan.

"We have no visual contact ... so we cannot say he is there or he is not there," he said.